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The Wonder of Tech is honored to welcome Gary Braley as a guest author, writing about the fascinating topic of trends in mobile technology.
Gary Braley is a long time software developer and consultant. He worked in aerospace and as an his website and at [email protected].
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- Apple Maps, Siri
- Samsung S-Voice
- Google Motorola Mobility
- Amazon Kindle Fire
- Tizen
What do all of these have in common? For one thing they show how alliances that have developed in a few short years are being shredded in even less time. The currently evolving technology and business relationships look nothing like the stable Microsoft-Intel-PC industry illustrated below that we’ve learned to love, or tolerate, for the last thirty years. For example, Google’s Eric Schmidt was removed from Apple’s board when his company developed Android in direct competition with Apple’s iOS. More recently Apple replaced Google maps on their mobile devices with Apple maps and introduced the voice search function Siri – both of which reduce reliance on Google and consequently reduced Google’s advertising revenue.
Corporate decisions are often more important than technology
The introduction of Apple maps in 2012 was met with derision because the initial version was far from perfect. When understood in the context of corporate conflicts, it is clear Apple didn’t make this move because they thought they had a better product – they did it to reduce reliance on an unreliable partner. (Many iOS users are thrilled that Apple Maps now includes turn by turn directions and a superior vector graphics engine – but that’s another story.) Much of this article will focus on similar corporate battles illustrated in the above list.
In the end as with the Betamax versus VHS battles
none of these technical specs mattered at all
Now that the mobile revolution is in full swing and major companies have rolled out a full line up of smartphones and tablets we see numerous comparisons of “features” – iPhone versus Samsung, this tablet versus that tablet and on and on. In these detailed comparisons we are encouraged to make important decisions based on things such as screen size, battery life, customization, etc. etc. This is reminiscent of the PC wars that raged during the early 1980’s. Processor speeds, screen sizes, operating system features and of course price were used to prove Apple was better than IBM, or that Radio Shack was better than Commodore.
In the end, as with the Betamax versus VHS battles, none of these technical specs mattered at all. First, because every company copied the features of every other product, there was never a clear long time feature winner.
Second, Microsoft developed one of the most important business arrangements in history with IBM. Since every IT manager and consultant knew you could never get fired for recommending IBM in the 1980’s, the PC war was all over at that point. No one else stood a chance and everyone dropped out. Everyone except Apple, of course, which hung on by its fingernails and began clawing its way from the abyss with the return of Steve Jobs and the announcement of the iMac in 1998.
Love it or hate it, that was the world of personal computers
for thirty years. The complaints that technology was
always changing so fast were completely overblown
As an aside, it’s interesting to note that the the tech specs we see quoted are meaningless to most people. How many of these terms can you explain: megahertz, gigabytes, quad core and the ever-popular megapixel? This last one has been added to our computer specs because the modern mobile device is a computer and a camera. As PC’s became increasingly powerful, speed and capacity became less critical because every PC was powerful enough and had sufficient storage. Mobile devices reignited this arms race because early models were underpowered and didn’t have enough storage, so for now “more is better,” but not for long.
What can we learn from the PC era?
Let’s take a deeper look at the forces behind the scenes that are shaping the mobile world: forces that will go much farther than features, functions and technical specs to determine who the ultimate winners and losers are likely to be. The rapidly changing corporate alliances will have a significant effect on the outcome.
In the old days when “a PC was a PC,” they were made by IBM or one of the cloners; they used an Intel processor and ran the latest version of Microsoft Windows. Life was simple. (See Figure 1)
The important factor was that the three main players each had a specific role and they all needed each other. Intel made the processors, many companies made the “boxes” and Microsoft made the OS. Love it or hate it, that was the world of personal computers for thirty years.
The complaints that technology was always changing so fast were completely overblown. The year-to-year differences in PCs typically amounted to a slightly faster processor, higher capacity hard drive, more RAM or a bigger screen – none of which could be called “breakthroughs”.
With these announcements Google went into
direct competition with its former partners and friends
Initially, the mobile world followed a surprisingly similar path on the Android side with Google supplying the Android OS; several companies (that few people could name) making the processors and numerous gadget makers cranking out smartphones and tablets by the millions. (See Figure 2)
This cozy arrangement lasted about three years and then Google changed the rules by purchasing Motorola Mobility – the cell phone part of Motorola. Some said Google was merely buying Motorola patents as a defensive measure and, Heaven knows, those were needed. But if Google’s motives were ever in doubt, they were confirmed when the company began selling Google Nexus smartphones in 2011, followed soon by the Google Nexus tablet and a laptop with the rather ungainly name of Chromebook Pixel.
With these announcements Google went into direct competition with its former partners and friends. There is no better application of the word “frenemy” than the relationship that Google has with manufacturers of Android smartphones. The simple arrangement shown in Figure 2 above soon began to crumble.
Not to be outdone, Microsoft took a similar tack one year later by announcing their own tablet – the Surface. Many PC makers will make Windows tablets, but now Microsoft is both a partner and a competitor.
To soften the blow of competing with its partners, Microsoft initially said the Surface would only be sold in their stores – fewer than fifty worldwide at the time, with a total shopping radius of about 0.5% of the earth’s land surface. That compromise lasted about a month before Microsoft announced that the Surface would be sold through Best Buy and Staples – greatly expanding their retail reach. This retail expansion was critical because few people would order a Surface online without actually touching one. Tablets represent a significant change in how people interact with computers – you’re not just replacing a PC.
So the biggest maker of Android devices has figured out two ways
to reduce its partner Google’s advertising revenue
Partners are sabotaging each other
The Android business model is not turning out well for Google. Google has spent millions of dollars developing Android – by all accounts a great operating system – and then gives it away.
Now Google’s best known and most profitable partner, Samsung, has announced that they’re going to make their own operating system, Tizen, and begin selling phones with that OS this year. Tizen has been designed with Intel to work across a range of devices in a way that Android was not. Two phrases you hear as these strategies evolve are “hedging their bets” and “playing defense”.
Of course Google gives away Android free so its partners will install it and increase the number of Google searches, which generate advertising revenue for Google, and increase app downloads from the Google Play app store – more money for Google. And what have its two biggest partners, Samsung and Amazon, done with this gift?
In addition to Tizen, Samsung just announced S-voice, a voice-activated search capability that will bypass Google, if it can – a cynic would say S-voice means “Siri voice,” since it operates much like that Apple function. So the biggest maker of Android devices has figured out two ways to reduce its partner Google’s advertising revenue – first bring out a competitive OS and then bypass Google search.
Amazon’s Kindle Fire is the biggest selling Android tablet, but you might never know it. Amazon has made the OS look totally different from the “normal” OS and doesn’t even promote Android in its sales pitch.
But it gets worse – much worse. Google makes money selling apps but Amazon has gone so far as to block access to the Google Play app store from the Fire. They’ve done this because Amazon profits only from sale of content, not from sale of Kindles. Amazon will only profit if users purchase from Amazon online stores – including their Appstore.
Needless to say, Google is not happy about this and now refuses to provide anyone, including Amazon, upgrades to Android unless they provide access to the Google Play store. It’s not likely that Amazon will concede to this, so the Kindle Fire version of Android will drift farther and farther from other Android devices.
Figure 3 above shows the conflicts that have developed as various players have attacked their former partners in both hardware and software arenas.
What defines the current leaders?
At the risk of oversimplifying the story you could summarize complaints about the four leading companies with one word each:
- Apple – Closed
- Android – Fragmented
- Microsoft – Confused
- Blackberry – Struggling
The three main contenders for the mobile OS crown all took different approaches when creating their software. Apple built an entirely new product unrelated to the Mac OS. They’re very slowly modifying each one so they have more and more in common.
Google had no desktop OS (except Chrome) so Android development was of necessity an entirely new product.
Apple Closed
Taking Apple first, there has long been a myth that IBM beat Apple in the PC era because IBM allowed other companies to sell PC’s. On the contrary, IBM fought vigorously to stop cloners and failed. It was pretty clear for years that many companies could crank out PC’s with much lower overhead and eventually IBM capitulated. No matter whether they allowed or didn’t allow others to make PC’s, dropping out of the PC business could hardly count as success by any measure.
There is no doubt, however, that Apple tightly controls every aspect of their business they can. They make the products, the processors, the operating systems and many apps. They operate hundreds of retail stores, sell music and books online and only allow their iPhones and iPads to run Apple-approved apps from the Apple App Store. Some people like this because there’s little room for finger pointing when something goes wrong and few opportunities for malware to infect iOS apps. Others find the whole vertical integration idea stifling.
Interestingly, this closed approach is comparable to the way Microsoft has operated – Windows was never modified and the world is better off because of it. Can you imagine fifty different versions of Windows 7?
Android Fragmented
In the case of Android, most Android-based devices cannot be upgraded to the latest version of the OS. Many devices ship with an outdated Android version and may never be upgradable. Few people would buy a PC with an old version of Windows that could never be upgraded. We’ve fallen into this trap because we think of smartphones first as phones and maybe later or never as computers. Most people could tell you which version of Windows they use but not which version of Android.
Not being able to upgrade a device means not only that new features can’t be installed but also that some apps won’t work and critical security patches cannot be installed. Google’s uncontrolled distribution of Android to all comers has allowed the OS usage to explode, but fragmentation plagues the product in ways most people cannot comprehend. It’s easy to observe and compare screen sizes but not operating system issues.
Microsoft Confused
Being four years behind in the mobile space, Microsoft swung for the fences with Windows 8 – an upgrade to the venerable desktop OS capable of running on touch screen smartphones and tablets.
Reviews of Microsoft’s newest baby have not been positive. Without going into all the details, the ability to touch the screen on some devices but not others, use of touch and/or a mouse, and the confusion between the mobile home screen and the standard Windows screen are among the common complaints. While Microsoft made a “unified” PC/tablet version of Windows 8, they also rolled out an entirely different version – Windows RT that runs on lower priced tablets. To add to the confusion, the version of MS Office that runs on Windows RT is not the real Office.
PC makers are doing everything they can to make their Win 8 PCs appear unique, by incorporating touch screens in a variety of “hybrid” configurations. If you compare these at a retail store, you’ll likely be frustrated by tapping a screen repeatedly, only to discover that particular model doesn’t actually have a touch screen.
Microsoft’s track record in new product success hasn’t been stellar – not withstanding the billions they’ve made from Windows and Office. Here’s a list they wish you’d forget: Kin, Courier, Zune, Origami, Bob and Vista. With the exception of the Xbox, they’ve essentially struck out in hardware. Finally, there’ll be confusion between home and office settings since most consumer PC’s are being sold with Windows 8 but corporate adoption will likely not come soon – many companies are just now rolling out Windows 7.
Thousands of individuals and companies of all sizes will finally make the call
by deciding which platforms to develop apps for
Blackberry Struggling
Formerly called RIM, Blackberry long held the position of selling the most secure and widely used device in business. Its latest smartphone and OS are promising and it cannot be counted out, but over a billion Android and Apple devices in the field represent a tremendous hurdle to overcome. PC evolution took more than a decade to reach the stage of development and market penetration that mobile tech has in less than five years, which means both Blackberry and Microsoft are lagging far behind.
To fend off a challenge from Blackberry, Apple and Google are adding security features but the Android OS presents the biggest challenge. The fact that most Android devices cannot be upgraded to the latest OS – where security capabilities reside – makes the issue problematic for an organization not willing to buy new devices every year for its employees.
What’s next for mobile tech?
As I hinted at the beginning of this article, it’s likely the mobile contest will follow a path similar to PC development. There are a half dozen mobile operating systems now; it’s likely one or two will dominate in the future.
There are many factors that will determine the outcome and technology and feature sets may not be the most important. Right now, Apple and Samsung have momentum and that will be critical. The battle between Android and Apple has become mostly a battle between Samsung and Apple. Thousands of individuals and companies of all sizes will finally make the call by deciding which platforms to develop apps for.
Just as Windows ruled the world because there was more software available compared to the Mac, mobile devices with the biggest selection of quality apps could be the winners. Some people say no one needs more than 200,000 apps but if you look closely at the quality of many of those 200,000 apps, you will understand why a bigger selection would be a definite advantage.
Most tech companies unfortunately are driven by geeks,
the geeks they employ, the geeks that write the reviews
and the geeks that are the early adopters
There is one very big difference between mobile and PC development. Microsoft Word illustrates this best. A recent version of that venerable word processor program had 1,500 commands – ten times the number in the original version. Most people do not use most of those commands, but that program has become the industry standard. Two more basic office packages – AppleWorks and Microsoft Works – were discontinued a few years ago.
In addition to the time users waste trying to figure out how to simply set document margins amid the plethora of unused features, there is less and less usable space on the screen. The answer has been simple – buy a bigger monitor. If the program required too much hard drive space, buy a bigger hard drive. It ran to slow, buy a faster computer. In this model software design drove hardware development.
This approach came to a screeching halt with the introduction of truly convenient tablets (Laptops may have been portable but they were never truly convenient.) Consumers wanted ten inch touch screen devices – period. Software developers have to face an entirely new reality. The model of computing for the next few years is in place – tablets ranging from four to ten inches – some of which include phone circuitry. That model began in 2010 with the introduction of the iPad and has not changed substantially since.
Most tech companies are unfortunately driven by geeks, the geeks they employ, the geeks that write the reviews and the geeks that are the early adopters. That’s why new models receive such praise even though ordinary people can hardly use them and do not want most of the advanced capabilities – as with MS Word. Apple has tended to favor ease of use while competitors tout long lists of new features.
The just-announced Samsung Galaxy S4 will stop playing a movie if you look away and respond to finger motions without physical contact. I’ll have to see both of those “features” to believe they would improve my smartphone experience.
We are seeing one interesting technology reversal – the move toward brick and mortar stores. If there’s one area where you’d think people would be happy to shop online it would be for tech gadgets. Many companies had retail PC stores in the 1980’s. Often these stores sold their own brand of PC’s that were assembled in the back room. These types of stores still exist but their impact has been greatly diminished. Gateway was the last one with a major national presence – until Apple came along. Now that there are more than four hundred Apple stores world wide, others are taking notice – most recently Microsoft. If Google and Samsung were to open stores, they would be continuing the trend of copying Apple – controlling as many of the “pieces” in the mobile game as possible – enough of those frenemies.
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Many thanks to Gary for his great work on this article. What are your thought on mobile trends? What do you see as the future for mobile tech? Will the future of mobile tech repeat the past of PC wars? Let us know in the Comments section below!
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Carolyn is away from the Internet, having recently rediscovered brick and mortar stores. She will return to respond to comments on April 1. Check back here often as new articles will continue to be published here at The Wonder of Tech while she’s away.
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* Apple vs. Google image by Saad Feruque
I think it’s tough for Blackberry to come back in the market as they have lost their ground, nowadays people are not only looking for security but some extra ordinary features along with the beauty.
You make a good point. Blackberry sort of fell asleep at the wheel when they had such a commanding lead in business communications. I don’t think people thought of Apple as a threat beyond beyond the consumer market until they and Google took off in the last five years. At this point Blackberry will have a very difficult time getting back in the game.
Thanks for writing.
Hi Abhishek, Welcome to The Wonder of Tech! Excellent point. As Gary mentioned, Blackberry definitely lost its way, in spite of being at the forefront of the smartphone market for quite a while. This article does a great job of reminding us that the battle for dominance in the tech world can have surprising winners and losers. And that the winner of today’s battle might be the loser of future battles.
Hey Gary,
Welcome to Carolyn’s place and what an interesting post.
Now as I always tell Carolyn and she never believes me, I’m not much of a tech girl myself. Okay, I just now got my first iPhone last Friday. Yep, I graduated from a flip phone. Hey, I said I was behind the times.
Now I had an iPod Touch I purchased last summer so I do know how to use the iPhone with no problems. Oh and that was upon Carolyn’s recommendation too. So glad I listened to her.
I also remember when IBM was king and I’m still a PC girl myself. Right now because I do blog I’m pretty ticked off at Google so if someone can come in and make better products I’m all for it. I can’t wait until someone takes them down to their knees personally. I think they need a little wake up call.
I’m still a Microsoft lover but I’m just not up on all this technology but I’m learning. I think I just need to stick with the basics and let everyone else battle it out.
~Adrienne
Thanks Adrienne,
Great to hear about your experience and what you think about Google now. Whether people like or hate current vendors and technologies, most seem to think they don’t have many choices. As I pointed out and you remind us nothing is permanent. The Google/Android situation could turn on a dime particularly with the power Samsung now wields. As a Microsoft lover, I’d be interested in your opinion of the Surface and Windows 8. Is there a tablet in your future?
I enjoyed your blog and thanks for writing.
Gary
I agree, most people think we’re stuck and in some cases we are but just because they’re the “big named” doesn’t mean there aren’t others out there that are better. I was in a service industry for years and learned that those that have good products don’t necessarily give you the best service.
I’m still with Windows 7 so haven’t gone to 8 yet. Oh and for now, no tablet in my future. I work at home ALL DAY LONG on my faithful desktop PC so no need for a tablet although I definitely know that’s where life is headed right!
Thank you Gary and I appreciate your response.
~Adrienne
As someone who also spends many hours a day on a computer I certainly appreciate your situation. if you’re ever tempted by a tablet, you might enjoy spending some of that time on the couch or the porch (with your computer). I do much of my research and some writing and email on the tablet. I enjoy having the computer come with me rather than going to a computer all the time – a subtle but appealing difference.
Thanks again.
GB
Hi Adrienne, Yes, Gary did a fantastic job with this article. I am thrilled that he let me share it with Wonder of Tech readers. His experience and insights combine to provide us with a fascinating analysis of the mobile tech industry.
As much as I write about tech, Adrienne, I don’t think you’re behind the times at all. The use of smartphones is growing but you’re by no means the last one to get an iPhone.
I will be very interested to see where this tech journey takes you. As Gary pointed out, tablets are very convenient too, so perhaps the iPod Touch was your “gateway” device to mobile tech? Time will tell!
Do you have plans for your iPod Touch? I have an article planned with a suggestion about what you could do with it!
I guess I think that I’m behind the times Carolyn but we had dinner with my family last night and my sister-in-law still has a flip phone. At least hers took pictures so she’s thinking of upgrading too!
I still use my iPod Touch, not as much as I did in the beginning so I intend to hang onto that one. My phone will be convenient for when I’m out but the iPod Touch is slimmer. Will still look forward to that post though.
Thanks!
~Adrienne
Wow, there so much information in this post.
I have to say that for me it’s hard to keep up with all those updates, and progression of things.
I had to smile when you wrote about the PC like it’s extinct and I know it’s on it’s way, but I still have a PC and l like PC’s. I hate that technology is always like on a racing game. I wish they’d slow down a bit to tell you the truth 🙂
Thanks for your comment Sylviane – good points
You’re right, I’ve slipped into the habit of discussing PCs in the past tense! Actually my main “PC” is a Mac with a large screen, big hard drive, etc. No tablet will ever beat it for video production, real photo editing, web site design and other tasks that demand a big screen. To overcome this barrier we’ll resort to docking stations that allow tablets to function as PCs with all the attached peripherals. That will work once tablet processors become sufficiently powerful and solid state storage drops even more in price. It will be cumbersome but it will work.
People often ask me if they should get rid of their desktop PC or laptop when they get a tablet and I say no – not until you’ve realized you no longer need it. Tablets are taking market share from – dare I say – “old fashioned computers” but they have certainly not replaced them for many functions.
Thanks again for writing and reminding me “they ain’t dead yet” 🙂
Gary
Hi Sylviane, Excellent point. PC’s aren’t quite dead yet. I often get asked if tablets will replace PC’s and I just don’t think they are there yet. Tablets can do a great job of supplementing PC’s but they aren’t powerful enough (yet) to replace them.
I don’t think tech will slow down any time soon, but I do think that the mobile market has reached a level of maturation that in some ways resemble the PC market of years ago, as Gary points out above. I find the new tech exciting, more along the lines of “what will they think of next?”, but I know many people get frustrated by the enormity of the changing tech world.
I’m so glad to hear that Carolyn. I was told not long ago that the PCs were on the decline and to be replaced by tablets, but don’t like tablets.LOL
By the way, I have a question for you. I am in the marketer for a new computer, and I was thinking of bying a laptop and just use a regular monitor and keyboard with it when I’m at home, and could still grab my laptop when I’m on the go. I know it might sound like such a stupid question, but can I do that? Or is it better for me to just get a PC?
Thought you’d be the right person to ask.
With regard to Apple being “closed,” your remark here:
“Some people like this because there’s little room for finger pointing when something goes wrong and few opportunities for malware to infect iOS apps.”
…completely characterizes what I like most about Apple, and why I’ve been a Mac guy for 20+ years. My parents own PCs, arguing they’re cheaper. But the finger pointing is astonishing: no one wants to take responsibility for anything when something goes wrong.
The unfortunate aspect of Apple’s “closed” attitude — really the only one I experienced — was iTunes not working with Android.
But I like my iPhone so much better than Android that this was only a temporary issue for me.
And even so, I understand why these partnerships are shaky at best: a company can only be stronger when it can do everything it needs to do in-house. An alliance will always be compromised, to some degree or another, because of the individual agendas of the partners; those will almost always have to take a priority over the collective agenda of the partnership itself.
Thanks Patrick,
I appreciated hearing from you. For every argument about PCs being cheaper (and they are on the shelf) there is a counter that looks at total cost of ownership over several years. That’s an entirely different story. I’ve never seen stats on how long Macs last compared to PCs but I’m sure the results would show they are not more expensive in the long run – particularly if your time is worth anything.
Regarding the “finger pointing” issue, the one question I tell people to address when considering a new device – who you gonna’ call? Where will you go for high quality help with any problems? Do you have friends or colleagues with the device you are buying? Will the store where you purchased it be able to help or will they just refer you to Microsoft, Dell or one of the other parties that made the product? These are all reasons why people have never really liked computers. They’ve tolerated them but they’d never purchase a car or refrigerator with the miserable experience many have encountered in the wonderful world of computers!
Thanks for writing and the next few years are going to be really exciting.
Gary
Hi Patrick, Excellent points. Yes, you can get Google Play music and books, andGoogle Maps on your iPhone, but you can’t get iTunes, iBooks or Apple Maps on your Android device. Apple’s system is closed as their goal is to sell you hardware and Google’s goal is to sell advertising.
As you and Gary explain, part of Apple’s appeal is the provision of hands-on customer service that is very difficult to find with PC’s. It will be interesting to see whether Google does open retail stores to provide the same access to service that Apple has.
I enjoyed Gary’s romp. Thanks Gary and Carolyn.
Blackberry’s past successes seem largely attributable to the uninformed and underserved American mobile market. As recently as 8 years ago, American mobile providers did not offer interesting phones or support for interesting phones. With access to European inventory, for example, I had GPS, video calling, etc. Blackberry achieved a brief moment of hype, but the party is over. RIP Blackberry.
Motorola trailed behind Blackberry and they sold off their development units – some of which are now rumored to be pirate units serving Chinese interests that reverse technology of existing products on the market. Google has made another short-sighted and bad investment and it will cost too much to rehabilitate Motorola and inject them with vision, ambition, and innovative design think. But Google can afford it…
Microsoft is just too big and fiscally responsible to do anything fast, cool and agile.
I’m surprised that was no historical mentions for Ericsson or Noika – they were once global players. Of course, they are now irrelevant.
Apple and Samsung own the court today.
The next big thing is intelligent eyewear. Not the present expectations of the Google kind. But a device that truly extends human intelligence. That will require considerable advances in miniaturization of computing, quantum processing, and crystalline storage protocols. And if we’re lucky, that’s about 10 years away.
Hi Stan,
I really appreciate your thoughtful comments. I certainly can’t disagree with any of them. If you had to characterize Microsoft, somehow the word nimble doesn’t come to mind 🙂
There certainly would have been a lot of other historical “fun facts” to mention including Nokia and Ericsson but I tried to focus more on the companies and industry models that directly relate to the current trends. I’m sure I missed some important connections in the process and thanks for bringing that up. (Maybe we’ll need a Part II)
I do want you to know I put a note on my calendar to check back with you in March 2023 to see how your intriguing predictions are turning out 🙂
Thanks again for writing and adding additional perspective on Blackberry and Motorola.
Gary
Just ask Carolyn – you don’t want my prophecies on your calendar. Intelligent eyewear by 2023 may coincide with the zombie, climate change, solar storm, or other apocalypses.
Perhaps intelligent eyewear is exactly what we’ll need to combat the zombie apocalypse, climate change, solar storms, falling meteors and other catastrophes of the future, Stan! :B
Stan and Gary, Yes, when I moved to Europe in late 2006, I was very surprised at how prevalent Nokia phones were there. But by the time I left in mid-2010, Apple was the dominant player in smartphones. Nokia never made significant inroads in the US mobile market, though they are trying to now by partnering with Microsoft for Windows Phones.
The tech world is fluid and moving rapidly. Whether Blackberry’s latest entries into the smartphone market will be successful remains to be seen.
Gary, you are welcome back any time for Part II if you’d like!
By the way Stan – I’ve sometimes been accused of ranting but never romping 🙂
GB
Romping is always a good thing. Ranting – which I do too often – not so much.
Gary,
I remember back in the 80’s and the battle for the computer platform that would win. I also remember the other battles that have taken place since then. I will have to admit that I was never really involved and just kind of went with the winner. I can see that there is another battle waging at the present.
I do have an iphone but have only had it for a year. My son gave it to me when he purchased a new one for himself. I do love it and also possess an ipad which I purchased for my self.
I really do not think that Apple will ever lose. They just seem to stick it out until they can push their way in. They managed to make it through the computer battle and while not winning did manage to keep some share of the market. Even with Steve Jobs gone I think they will always be a viable force in the computer type market.
I really do not like Google at this point. They think they are the King and that they can do anything they want. I think someone will come along and they will be done.
Great post and very informative.
Dee Ann
Ahh the eighties 🙂
Thanks for writing Dee Ann,
You’re right Apple just doesn’t seem to give up. I’m sure being an Apple employee in the 90s would not have been much fun with everyone declaring the company dead. The comeback had to be very sweet for those folks who were able to say on board that “sinking ship”.
It’s staggering to see how far we’ve come since then. With the first PC technology, a current digital photograph would have required over 20 floppy disks – and don’t get me started on video 🙂
Other than cool products, the biggest thing Apple has going for it is diversity. if one or two product lines suffer for any reason, they have seven or eight others to take up the slack.
And as Patrick mentioned above, the fact that Apple controls so many of the parts of its business, reduces the likelihood that a “partner” can act in its own self interest to the detriment of other partners.
The fact that the mobile revolution is happening much faster than the original PC revolution means we won’t have to wait long to see how this turns out.
Thanks again for sharing your experience.
Gary
I had friends working in Apple’s internet department in the 90s. People with MS or PHd’s in Computer Sciences, etc. I still chuckle when when my friends remember how they were all laid off because Apple’s visionaries decided that the Internets just wasn’t going to be big enough and interesting enough for Apple. So what is amazing to me is not Apple’s ability to envision, but Apple’s ability to survive EPIC mistakes and make the big comebacks- just like the one I just described.
The iPhone’s place in mobile history is as a cornerstone for the mobile web. The challenge at the moment , I believe, is not the incremental advances in device hardware so much as the ease of access, low cost and quality of content, publishers, services and social. That puts Apple and Google in direct competition with Amazon, Hollywood, Facebook, Twitter and beyond.
To be sure, both Apple and Google are also failing to enthusiastically support third party developers, community builders, and netizens in building a mobile web that makes mobility more relevant. Samsung, ironically, is incapable of even connecting the dots from phone to web 3.0. [grin] They’ll copy and paste long after the fact. And I get to say that – being half Korean.
Hi Stan – thanks to both of your “halves” for the excellent comments.
I think the real battle now is going to be over how the technology companies and content providers pair up. That part will be brutal. Apple is certainly not going to make movies (are they?). If the real Apple TV does come out, it will be the result of incredible negotiations with Hollywood to figure out how to price and distribute the content so everyone can make money. I think cable is doomed but the replacement system is no slam dunk.
But of course in the end we’ll look back and chuckle when we are all wearing an iWatch that will let us make phone calls and watch TV – at the same time. You heard it here first 🙂
Gary
Hi Stan, I enjoyed not only Gary’s article but his illustrations of the competitions going on right now. Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Samsung are all Fremenies right now. Although they’re competitors, they benefit from each other’s existence in the tech market.
Apple and Google have been known to support third party developers against patent trolls. See, http://arstechnica.com/apple/2012/04/court-allows-apple-to-intervene-in-lodsys-lawsuit-against-ios-developers/ and http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2011/08/google-android-lodsys-patent/ As can be seen by the demise of Palm and the struggle of Microsoft with Windows Phone, developers can be essential to the success of a mobile platform.
Hi Dee Ann, Yes, Google may be powerful now, but as Gary points out, many mighty tech companies have fallen from their lofty perches. It will be interesting to see in five years which of the tech companies that are dominant today will still be dominant then!
i think in the mobile arena Android will win the race as compare to Apple because Android is covering all the world with less pricy products while Apple is on the pricy side so it won’t make it in the developing countries…
Good point Jawad –
The big problem is that Android is just a free OS provided to all takers for the time being by Google. Right now Samsung is the only company making serious money from Android and it’s even edging away with the development of Tizen – an Android competitor. Apple makes two thirds of the mobile profits and Samsung gets the rest. As handset prices drop – and they will like every other tech gadget in the past – just making phones will be less and less profitable. Eventually companies will need to come up with a way to make money on software, services and content – along the lines of Apple, Microsoft and Amazon.
Thanks again
Gary
Hi Jawad, You and Gary both make excellent points. Yes, more Android phones may be sold worldwide, giving them the bigger market share, but Apple’s profit margins are much larger, giving them the lion’s share of the profits.
Analysts have speculated that Apple may deliver a lower cost iPhone later this year to try to regain market share but that move would lower their profit margins.
We will have to wait to see what Apple has in store for us later this year.
You are the bestest ever, C!
Developing a deep appreciation for squirrel meat may also be key. At least that’s what Norman Reedus (the actor that plays Daryl Dixon) is saying.
Thanks, Stan, but I’m ahead of you on that one. Just like chicken, I say! 😉
I remember when I worked in IT back in 2005, how Blackberry ruled the phone industry to the point where for every sales person I saw, carried a blackberry phone. Now, that is dead and here I am still carrying a blackberry phone. I use to be what you call a “lifer” for BB and believed in its product so much I never bought an iPhone. Now, I can’t wait to jump ship when my contract ends and move on.
What’s sad is that if companies don’t stay on top of its competition, they end up getting swallowed up in the process. Case in point, Nokia. You never mentioned them in this post and rightly so. Are they even still around? Yes, but not on the scale they use to be. They have some really cool phones, if you can afford one and they aren’t marketed to the masses like Android or iPhone.
And what about computers, when Desktops use to be the rage. Now you can get one for less then $300 at Walmart. Now laptops are about to be in the same boat with tablets sprouting up everywhere, but I think I will still hold on to my laptop because I like its functionality better, but I wouldn’t rule out a tablet for fun.
Ah…the crazy world of Technology. I just wish I could see what’s gonna happen in 5 years before anyone else so I can cash in!
Hi Sonia,
It’s sad to hear from a BB “lifer” but thanks for your note/lament 🙂
The mobile revolution that started with the iPhone really clobbered traditional phone makers like Nokia and Blackberry. When Apple came out with the iPhone many people thought a computer company wouldn’t succeed in the phone business. What they didn’t realize was that the phone business would become a computer business and Apple was poised with its iPod experience to jump right in.
In these turbulent times it is difficult to predict winners and losers – darn! – but there will be some. The PC industry started this way and many pretty good companies got trounced. Now, just think how long Microsoft and Intel ruled the world when the dust settled – almost thirty years.
Thanks for writing and good luck with predicting the future 🙂
Gary
Hi Sonia, Yes, BlackBerry used to be the rage. I have two friends who held on to their BlackBerry phones until last year when they both switched to the iPhone. It will be interesting to see if BlackBerry can make a comeback with their latest line of phones. But you’re right, it’s much easier to preserve market share than try to regain it.
I reviewed a great Nokia phone in December, a Windows phone. But the Windows phone platform hasn’t been very popular either. As Gary points out, right now the race seems to be between Android and iPhone. But you’re right, we don’t know who the big players will be in five years!
Carolyn,
How awesome of you to have Gary guest post. Gary, I have to say, my husband is a mini-me Steve Jobs. He blows it out of the water. We both have a very technical background, but he converted me to a MAC lover years ago. I find your post interesting about the comparisons. I must say, besides the fact that he’s a Yankees fan and I’m a Red Sox fan, this whole iPhone/Samsung – has become a dilemma. The iPhone when it came out could do everything but make you breakfast. lol (my husband is still waiting for scratch and sniff lol) but this Samsung has so many more features. Siri’s voice recognition is disappointing. There’s a definite “cult” behavior between MAC and PC people. lol You brought up sooo many amazing stats. People need to be aware and make logical decisions. Great job on your post. It’s one I’m going to re-read (and share with my mini-me Steve Jobs) lol
Warmest regards, Lisa
Hi Lisa,
What an upper to log on and read your enthusiastic note this morning. That, combined with rapidly melting snow drifts in Minnesota, made my day 🙂
One of the main messages I give when I speak on mobile technology concerns the basic trade off we have to make and there is no one answer for everyone (feature set versus compatibility). You’re absolutely right about the vast array of features in the latest Samsung phone. The other side of the argument is the compatibility among various devices in the office or family and this is where I think Apple is ahead now.
I use an iMac, iPhone and iPad and commonly work on presentations and articles using Keynote and Pages on the iMac and iPad with the iPhone as a backup. The almost flawless sharing of files across those devices is the reason I’m with Apple right now. I’ve also tested over a thousand mobile apps and the Apple “ecosystem” just works like it should in this process. I like the fact that when I get a new iPhone or iPad, I can just plug it in and have the hundreds of apps I’m currently using, testing or demoing immediately available on the new device. Compatibility is where IMHO Android falls flat. There’s no such a thing as an Android PC and most Android devices don’t work with most versions of the OS.
Some people enjoy what others would call the hassle of getting gadgets to work and they go so far as to jailbreak and over clock their toys with abandon. That’s not me. I’m into productivity – productivity for myself and those I teach through lectures and my newsletter. Speaking of my newsletter, you can sign up for the free monthly publication here: http://gBraley.Blogspot.com. That blog also has an archive of the last 40 editions. Don’t be deceived by the subject line of the most recent one “Why there’s no purple in the rainbow and geriatric dentists in Omaha”; it really is all about technology 🙂
I think the devices will all gradually merge into an almost generic model as the companies shamelessly copy everything good their competitors create – patents, lawyers and court cases not withstanding. Of course they run the risk of creating monsters as they attempt too outdo each other in the feature race. BTW If you end up with an S4, let us know right away how that eye tracking thing works 🙂
Regards,
Gary
Hi Gary,
You brought up an excellent point. One of the best part of being a MAC user is the compatibility between all the devices. We have all you mentioned too and it is awesome to know I can either be on my MacBook Pro or my iPad or iPhone and continue working. With cloud technology, it makes it a breeze. I’ll definitely subscribe to your news letter. We don’t have the 4S any more, we have the 5. ;0 What eye tracking thingy? lol
Hi again Lisa,
I misunderstood your comment about how the iPhone used to be great but Siri wasn’t the best and Samsung had all the features. I thought just maybe there was a Samsung Galaxy S4 in your future. And you did say it was a dilemma.
Just for clarification one of the great features of the upcoming S4 is that it will track your eyes when you’re watching a movie and stop the playback when you look away – how spooky is that!
And I just got a message you had indeed subscribed to my newsletter. That’s super and I hope you enjoy reading it as much as I enjoy writing it.
Gary
Hi Gary,
Yeah – we are totally MAC people. But I have a friend who has the Samsung and the features are ahead of the iPhone = I SHREIK! I just swapped in my iPhone 4 for a 5. Gave my 4 to my niece. My hubby had the 4S and was due to trade in and gave that to our othre niece and he got the 5. Does the 5 track your eye movement? Yes, excited about your techie news letter. I sent the info to my hubby to subscribe too.. He loves that kind of stuff.